There is no help for this topic. Try Table Contents NFL Forecaster for DOS 4.1d Copyright (c) 1994-96 by George Tylutki 100% Cotton Software, RR 1 Box 1622, Hop Bottom, PA 18824 USA TABLE OF CONTENTS Help What's Introduction Installing\Uninstalling Overview Running Forecaster Quitting Forecaster Register Forecaster? Warranty, License, Support What Shareware? What Users Trying Forecaster Catching Interpreting Forecasts Correcting Mistakes Playoff Games Cancelled Postponed Games Annual Update Backups Reconstructing MAIN-DTA.NFL File Formats MAIN-DTA.NFL Weekly archive files FCAST.CFG SCHEDULE.NFL NAMES.NFL Miscellaneous Average Points Error Messages COMMAND REFERENCE 1.1 1.2 1.3 Print 1.3.1 Spreads 1.3.2 Rankings 1.3.3 Category Rankings 1.3.4 Division Rankings 1.3.5 Archive 1.3.6 Schedule 1.4 Shell 1.5 Quick 3.1 Spreads 3.2 Rankings 3.3 Division Rankings 3.4 Category Rankings 3.5 Restore Layout 3.6 Layout 3.7 Average Points 3.8 Archive 3.9 Schedule 3.10 Calendar Options 5.1 5.1.1 Windows 5.1.1.1 Vertically 5.1.1.2 Horizontally 5.1.2 Shadows ON/OFF 5.1.3 Toggle Video 5.1.4 Colors 5.2 Print 5.2.1 Printer Setup 5.2.2 Title Reports 5.2.3 Spreads Initials 5.3 General 5.3.1 Highlight 5.3.2 Sound ON/OFF 5.3.3 Names 5.3.3.1 Names 5.3.3.2 Names 5.4 Seasonal 5.4.1 MAIN-DTA.NFL 5.4.2 Create Schedule 5.5 6.1 Manually Enter Scores 6.2 Manually Forecast Spreads Window 7.1 7.2 Cascade 7.3 Close 7.4 Size/Move 7.5 7.6 Switch 7.7 Previous 7.8 Close 8.1 Forecaster 8.2 Contents 8.3 Introduction 8.4 Overview 8.5 Catching 8.6 Commands 8.7 Error Messages 8.8 Should Register Forecaster? 8.9 Shareware 8.10 About 8.11 Print Registration INTRODUCTION To predict the winners of football games, you must rank the opposing teams; some teams must be better than others. A number of elements may be taken into account, including yards gained passing and rushing, average yards per down, quarterback ranking, and home field advantage. However, ONLY TWO THINGS REALLY MATTER: (1) a team's win/loss record which in turn depends upon (2) the number of points scored by and against that team. A winning team must win games and to do this it must score more points than its opponent. @ USING ONLY SCORES, NFL Forecaster assigns each NFL team an offense and defense ranking and a total ranking (offense and defense combined). Based on these rankings Forecaster predicts winners of games and the point spreads. IT ONLY TAKES 10 MINUTES A WEEK TO ENTER THIS WEEK'S SCORES AND OBTAIN NEXT WEEK'S FORECASTS. Over the past eleven seasons, FORECASTER has correctly predicted winners 62.5% of the time and spreads 58.7% of the time. For the last five years Forecaster has correctly predicted winners 63.2% of the time and spreads 59.7% of the time. And for the 1991-92 season Forecaster hit 70.2% for winners and 67.7% for spreads. Although this does not equal the percentages of some sports handicappers, it should be noted that Forecaster predicted winners and spreads for 90% of the games (only 278 of 2,690 games were too close to call), not just Monday night games or "5-star specials." NFL Forecaster usually picks winners than the handicappers and regularly predicts more spreads correctly than the Las Vegas odds-makers. Forecaster picks winners and predicts point spreads; it does not try to "beat the spread." For example, let us assume that the odds-makers have predicted that San Diego will beat the Raiders by two points. If you pick San Diego and they win by two (23- 21), you lose; the odds-makers win because San Diego (and, therefore, you) did not beat the spread. However, if Forecaster predicts San Diego will beat the Raiders by two points and they do, then Forecaster "wins"; it correctly predicted the point spread (two or more points). Forecaster uses only scores to rank teams and it ranks them objectively. Therefore, it cannot take into account that the Raiders are very good on Monday night or that a quarterback broke his arm during practice, but you can. Forecaster is like a personal odds-maker; it doesn't bet, but it will tell you who will PROBABLY win, by how much, and why (it shows the rankings it has assigned to each team). NFL Forecaster is RECREATIONAL SOFTWARE: any interest and pleasure associated with the program is derived from using the program and NOT from any results which might accrue from using its forecasts. It is NOT intended to be used as an aid to placing bets and NO claim is made that it will make you a winner, although the accuracy of its forecasts is greater than from chance predictions (more accurate than flipping a coin). ) NFL Forecaster was written using Borland Pascal 7.0. Borland Pascal is a registered trademark of Borland International. MS- DOS is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation. Windows is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation. "Data" is considered a collective noun taking a singular verb. INSTALLATION For information about minimum requirements, installing and uninstalling, see VENDINFO.DIZ, README.1ST and SETUP.HLP. WHAT'S NEW? Version 4.1d is identical to v4.0d except: 1 1. The schedule file is for the 1996-97 season. 2. The on-line help file sections "Interpreting Forecasts" and "NFL Average Points per Game" have been updated to include statistics from the 1995-96 season. Z 3. A new names.nfl file is included (the Cleveland Browns are now the Baltimore Ravens). 4. A separate manual (fcast.doc) is no longer included; the on-line help (fcast.hlp) contains all information about Forecaster. HELP NFL Forecaster provides status-line hints and a complete context-sensitive on-line help system accessed via the Help menu and the F1 key. You can obtain on-line help via Forecaster's Help menu. Highlight the menu item of the topic you are interested in and press the Enter key. Whenever any Forecaster menu item is highlighted, the status line at the bottom of the screen will provide a "hint" about that item's function. Also, whenever a menu item is highlighted, you can press F1 to access Forecaster's on-line help; a complete explanation of that menu item will be displayed. In order to obtain on-line help while running Forecaster, the file FCAST.HLP must be in the same directory as FCAST.EXE. While viewing on-line help, you can move resize the help window and scroll through the help text using the keyboard direction keys or a mouse. In the on-line text are topic links -- highlighted words and phrases. If you move the cursor to the link word or phrase and press Enter (or double-click the mouse), the on-line help will jump to and display the text for that topic. For example, if you are looking at the on-line topic "Viewing Spreads," there will be a highlighted link to "Printing Spreads." If you select this link, you will see the on-line help for "Printing Spreads" where there will be links to "Printer Setup" and so on. Each topic has browse links. The right link will display the next topic and the left will display the previous. Using the browse links is like turning pages in a manual. While viewing the on-line help, you can press Alt+F1 to display the previous topic (up to 10 previous topics). Thus, it is easy to follow links from one topic to another and find your way back to where you began. Also, while viewing the on-line help, you can press Shift+F1 to display the on-line Table of Contents. l Most of NFL Forecaster's dialog boxes contain a help button which you can press to get help at that point. OVERVIEW Each week you enter the scores for the games played and Forecaster calculates new rankings for each team. Then you indicate the teams that will be playing in the next week's games and Forecaster predicts the winners and spreads. The new rankings must be saved to the MAIN-DTA.NFL file so that the rankings can be used the next week. This is done automatically if you use the Quick function. MAIN-DTA.NFL is reused each week; last week's rankings are read into the computer's memory and used to compute new rankings which are then written back to MAIN-DTA.NFL. (See "Trying Forecaster" about "playing around" with Forecaster before the season begins.) Every week's rankings should also be saved to weekly archive files which are not updated each week. This is done automatically if you use the Quick function. The archive files contain the rankings of a given week, the scores of that week (except the first week of the season) and the forecasts for the following week (except the last week of the season). These files may be used to find a ranking, score, or forecast of any past week. They can also be used to reconstruct MAIN-DTA.NFL if it should become corrupt. You can obtain spread forecasts and enter scores using NFL Forecaster's slow function. However, it's easier to use the Quick function which takes you step-by-step through the process of entering scores, forecasting spreads, saving data and printing reports. You choose week that you want predictions for and Forecaster reads the NFL schedule from a disk file, displays the teams which have played each other and requests that you enter the scores. It then calculates the forecasts for the next week, saves the new rankings, scores and spreads to disk, prints reports you choose and displays rankings in the view windows of your choice. 3 Forecaster has several other functions and is highly configurable: you can open six different view windows; print five different reports; print or view the NFL schedule; sort the rankings eight different ways; use team names; add row highlighting; add titles to the printed reports; and much more. At the beginning of each season you need to alter two files. In MAIN-DTA.NFL, the number of points a team has scored, its win, loss and tie record and other data must be set zero for the new season. Also, SCHEDULE.NFL must be updated with the new schedule. Forecaster provides functions for both of these tasks. Also, you can purchase an annual update disk which contains MAIN-DTA.NFL, SCHEDULE.NFL and the latest version of NFL Forecaster. RUNNING NFL FORECASTER Log on to the drive and directory that contain the installed Forecaster files and type "fcast". See your DOS manual for information about placing the Forecaster directory in your PATH statement so that you can run Forecaster from any other directory. A title and registration reminder dialog box is displayed while NFL Forecaster loads and initializes. When the main menu is displayed, you can press the "OK" button to continue (the button is inactive until then). The title dialog box of the registered version of Forecaster does not contain a registration reminder and will close itself automatically when Forecaster has loaded. Forecaster will run in a DOS box under Microsoft Windows 3.0 or later. Setup places a Forecaster icon in the destination directory; you can use Windows Program Manager to place the icon on your desktop so that you can run NFL Forecaster for DOS by clicking on the icon. (Cotton Software also published a Windows version of NFL Forecaster that takes advantage of Windows superior display and printing capabilities.) QUITTING NFL FORECASTER You quit Forecaster by choosing Exit from the File menu or by pressing Alt-X. If you have loaded a file (either from the File menu or via Quick), entered scores and thus changed the rankings and not saved the new rankings to disk, Forecaster will warn you that you are about to quit without saving the new rankings. At this point you can choose to save the data before quitting and Forecaster will open a Save As dialog box for you. You can also choose to quit without saving the data (sometimes you may want to enter some scores to see how the rankings would have changed if team x had won instead of lost and do not want to save the new rankings). Also, you can choose to cancel in which case you are simply returned to Forecaster. ANNUAL UPDATE DISK Since NFL Forecaster uses game scores, current rankings and accumulated and average points for and points against to compute new rankings and to calculate point spreads, it is necessary at the beginning of each season to modify MAIN-DTA.NFL so that these and the number of wins, losses and ties and the win/loss percentage of each team are set to zero. Also, in order to use the Quick function, a new schedule file must be created. NFL Forecaster provides functions for zeroing MAIN-DTA.NFL and for creating schedule (SCHEDULE.NFL) at the beginning of each season. Many users prefer to purchase an annual update disk instead of using these functions. The update disk contains a zeroed MAIN-DTA.NFL file, a new SCHEDULE.NFL file, an updated on-line help file and the LATEST VERSION of NFL Forecaster. All registered owners of Forecaster are notified when the update disks become available (usually around July 1). The cost is $7.40 (including shipping and handling). When you register Forecaster, you receive a coupon worth 25% off the price of your first annual update disk. Annual update disks MUST be ordered directly from 100% Cotton Software. WHY SHOULD I REGISTER NFL FORECASTER? You can register Forecaster by mail, phone, fax or email using a check, money order, credit card or CompuServe account. NFL Forecaster is a copyrighted shareware product; it is not freeware or public domain. You can try it before you buy it and you are encouraged to give copies to others If you use it after 30 days, you must register it. (See "Warranty/License/Support" for conditions.) 5 When you register NFL Forecaster, you will receive: 1. the latest version of the program (with MAIN-DTA.NFL current as of shipping day) which does not have any request-for- registration dialog boxes; R 2. unlimited, life-time, free (not toll-free) telephone, email and mail support; M 3. complete set of archive files: 10 years of scores, spreads and rankings; @ 4. 25% discount coupon: toward purchase of annual update disk; h 5. $2.00 coupon: toward registration of any other Cotton Software product (see the file PRODUCTS.TXT); 6. and, of course, the appreciation of programmers who strive to produce inexpensive, quality, useful and entertaining software. 7. Teachers are over-worked and underpaid. Therefore, any teacher who registers directly to Cotton Software using his or her school letterhead will receive a $3.00 rebate check. ? MAIL: Send a check or money order for $20.00 (US dollars) to: P 100% Cotton Software RR 1 Box 1622 Hop Bottom, PA 18824 Orders from outside of the United States, Canada and Mexico should add $3.00 for S&H. You can print a registration form by choosing Help/Print Registration Form from the Forecaster menu. ^ CREDIT CARD ORDERS (MC, Visa, Amex, Discover) may be made through Public (software) Library: PHONE: 800-2424-PsL 713-524-6394 FAX: 713-524-6398 CIS EMAIL: 71355,470 MAIL: Public (software) Library PO Box 35705 Houston, TX 77235-5705 Your order will be processed more quickly and efficiently if you refer to item #11343. Be sure to tell the operator that you want the REGISTERED version of NFL Forecaster for DOS. THE ABOVE PSL NUMBERS ARE FOR ORDERS ONLY. Any questions about the status of the shipment of the order, refunds, registration options, product details, technical support, volume discounts, dealer pricing, site licenses, etc. must be directed to 100% Cotton Software (717-289-4019) or to George Tylutki at CompuServe 103051,603. To insure that you get the latest version, PsL will notify us the day of your order and we will ship the product directly to you (often the same day). s COMPUSERVE ACCOUNT You can charge Forecaster's registration fee to your CompuServe account. First, GO SWREG. Select "Register Software." Enter "11286" (the registration number for NFL Forecaster for DOS). Select "Register." Enter your name, address, etc. Select "Send." Compuserve will notify us and we will ship the product directly to your (often the same day). WARRANTY, LICENSE, SUPPORT User Groups, Computer Clubs, Disk Vendors and Distributors, Subscription Services, Disk-of-the-Month Clubs, BBS SYSOPS, and other distributors should refer to VENDINFO.DIZ for complete information relating to them. Warranty The author believes that NFL Forecaster is able to do what its documentation says it can do. Every good- faith effort has been made to remove "bugs" from this program and to make the user aware of its limitations. However, it is mathematically impossible to prove a computer program correct. Therefore, users of NFL Forecaster must accept this disclaimer of warranty: NFL FORECASTER IS SUPPLIED AS IS. TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, THE AUTHOR DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND OF FITNESS FOR ANY PURPOSE. NEITHER THE AUTHOR NOR ANYONE ELSE WHO HAS BEEN INVOLVED IN THE CREATION, PRODUCTION, OR DELIVERY OF THIS SOFTWARE SHALL BE HELD LIABLE FOR ANY DAMAGES, INCLUDING ANY LOSS OF PROFIT, DATA OR OTHER SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OR SIMILAR CLAIMS ARISING OUT OF THE USE OF THIS PROGRAM. m License Terms Applicable To All Use And Distribution NFL Forecaster and all associated software and documentation (the package) are copyrighted products. The NFL Forecaster package is comprised of all files contained within the ODNFL41.ZIP compressed archive file. All rights not expressly granted here are reserved to the author. The use or distribution of this package is expressly prohibited, except as authorized by the terms of this agreement. The NFL Forecaster package may not be copied, rented, leased, sold, modified, decompiled, disassembled, or otherwise reverse engineered except as provided in this agreement. m License Terms Applicable To Trial Use For Evaluation You are granted a limited license to use this program for evaluation purposes for a period of 30 days. If you find NFL Forecaster useful and continue to use it after 30 days, you must make a registration payment to 100% Cotton Software. See above for registration fee, benefits, addresses and phone numbers. o License Terms Applicable To Use Of Registered Version The registration fee will license one copy of NFL Forecaster for use on any one computer at any one time. You must treat this software just like a book. That is, this software may be used by any number of people and may be freely moved from one computer location to another, so long as there is no possibility of it being used at one location while it's being used at another (just as a book cannot be read by two persons at the same time at two different locations). If more than one copy of NFL Forecaster is used on more than one computer at the same time, each copy of NFL Forecaster must be individually registered or a special license must be obtained. Low-cost site, multiple-copy, and school licenses are available. Write or call for more information. = Limited Distribution License Permission is granted to individuals charging no fees, and to BBSs, User Groups, Mail-Order Disk Vendors, CD-ROM publishers, and BBS File-Distribution Networks regardless of fees, to distribute the NFL Forecaster package provided they distribute a complete and unaltered copy of the NFL Forecaster package and they make no claim of ownership of the package. q Distribution by other channels, and distribution of modified versions, are also allowed, but only under the terms of the VENDINFO data record incorporated in VENDINFO.DIZ. Any distribution satisfying all the distribution requirements expressed in that data record is hereby authorized. Permission to distribute the NFL Forecaster package may not be transferred, assigned, sold or franchised. Each vendor wishing to distribute the NFL Forecaster package must independently satisfy the terms of this limited distribution license. The author may revoke any permissions granted here at any time by notifying you in writing. g Certain files of the NFL Forecaster package are updated every year to keep the package current with changes in the National Football League (for example, the schedule). If you have a version that is over twelve (12) months old, contact the author to ensure that you have the latest version. Version 4.1d of NFL Forecaster for DOS was released 15 May 1996. Support Registered owners of NFL Forecaster receive free support for the lifetime of the product. You can call (not toll-free) 717-289-4019, send email to CompuServe 103051,603 or send a letter to the above address. WHAT IS SHAREWARE? SHAREWARE IS A DISTRIBUTION METHOD, NOT A TYPE OF SOFTWARE. Shareware distribution gives you a chance to try software before buying it. If you try a Shareware program and continue using it, you are expected to register. Individual programs differ on details: some request registration while others require it and some specify a maximum trial period. The benefits of registration range from the basic right to continue using the software to an updated program with printed manual. K Copyright laws apply to both Shareware and commercial software, and the copyright holder retains all rights, with a few specific exceptions as stated below. Shareware authors are accomplished programmers, just like commercial authors, and their programs are of comparable quality. The main difference is in the method of distribution. The shareware author specifically grants the right to copy distribute the software, either to all or sundry or to a specific group. For example, some authors require written permission before a commercial disk vendor may copy their Shareware. You should find software that suits your needs and pocketbook, whether it's commercial or Shareware. The Shareware system makes fitting your needs easier, because you can try before you buy. And because the overhead is low, prices are low also. SHAREWARE HAS THE ULTIMATE MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE: IF YOU DON'T USE THE PRODUCT, YOU DON'T PAY FOR IT. But if you do use it, you MUST pay for it. WHAT IS ASP? This program was produced by a member of the Association of Shareware Professionals (ASP), an industry association founded in 1987 to which authors and vendors of Shareware programs belong. As a user of Shareware, you benefit from ASP activities. ASP promotes broad distribution of Shareware so that ASP Shareware programs can continue to be reasonably priced and easily obtained. ASP sets and maintains programming, marketing and support standards that members must follow; thus, you can be sure that ASP Shareware programs are of high quality, marketing is honest and support meets minimum standards. For example, the evaluation copy of an ASP Shareware program may not be limited (crippled) in any way; members must respond to every registration; members must provide technical support for their products for at least 90 days from the date of registration. Should an ASP member move or obtain a new telephone number, you can locate him or her through the ASP Executive Director, 545 Grover Road, Muskegon, MI 49442-9427 USA, CompuServe 72050,1433, FAX 616-788-2765, Voice 616-788-5131. ASP wants to make sure that the shareware principle works for you. If you are unable to resolve a shareware-related problem with an ASP member by contacting the member directly, ASP may be able to help. The ASP Ombudsman can help you resolve a dispute or problem with an ASP member, but does not provide technical support for members' products. Please write to the ASP Ombudsman at 545 Grover Road, Muskegon, MI 49442-9427 USA, FAX 616-788-2765 or send a CompuServe message via CompuServe Mail to ASP Ombudsman 70007,3536. CATCHING UP REGISTERED VERSION When you register NFL Forecaster after the NFL season has begun, an enclosed letter will inform you when main-dta.nfl was last updated (a Tuesday morning after the Monday night game). If you receive the package before the next games are played, you will need to do nothing except print out the forecasts. For example, if we ship on Tuesday and you get it on Thursday, you will use File\Open and File\Print\Archive File to print out the forecasts and then the following Tuesday morning use Quick to enter scores and obtain forecasts for the next week. If games are played between the time we ship and you receive (for example, we ship on Friday and you get it the following Tuesday), you will probably not bother printing out the forecasts, but just use Quick to enter scores and obtain forecasts for the next week. / In either case, if you want a complete printed record of the forecasts for the season up to when you received Forecaster, you should use File\Open to load each weekly archive file and File\Print\Archive File to print each archive file (which contains the rankings, scores and forecasts for each week). S UNREGISTERED VERSION If you obtained an unregistered copy of NFL Forecaster after the season began, you need to "catch up" -- bring the main data file (MAIN-DTA.NFL) up to date (see "Overview"). You will need a copy of the NFL game scores from the beginning of the season to the present. MAIN-DTA.NFL contains the rankings for the teams as of the end of the previous season before any playoff games (points for, points against, win, loss, and tie have been zeroed). The rankings are based on the scores you enter and the forecasts are based on the rankings, so the rankings must be correct. H 1. First, make a backup copy of your disks and install NFL Forecaster. 2. Run Forecaster. % 3. Choose Quick from the main menu. L 4. In the list box choose "Enter week 1 scores & forecast week 2 spreads." a 5. Enter the scores. Forecaster will update the rankings and calculate the spreads for week 2. s 6. Press the "No" button when Forecaster asks if you would like to forecast spreads for some non-scheduled games. ` 7. Press the "Yes" button when Forecaster asks if it should save the updated rankings to disk. X 8. Press the "Yes" or "No" button when Forecaster asks if it should print the reports. \ 9. Press the "Yes" or "No" button when Forecaster asks if it should open the view windows. 10. Repeat steps 3 to 9 until you have entered the scores for the last week that NFL games were played. Of course, at step 4 you must choose the appropriate weeks. When you are done, you will have one or more weekly archive files and MAIN-DTA.NFL will contain the latest rankings and statistics. You can then use Quick each week to update the rankings and obtain spread forecasts. If you want a complete printed record of the predictions, you should choose "Forecast week 1 spreads" the first time you come to step 4; Forecaster will skip to step 6. PLAYOFF GAMES For the playoff games and the Super Bowl, you must use Slow/Enter Scores and Slow/Forecast Spreads because Quick cannot use the schedule file to request scores from you and forecast spreads (the playoff teams are unknown when the schedule is constructed). + For each playoff game and the Super Bowl, ( 1. use File/Open to load MAIN-DTA.NFL; 7 2. use Slow/Enter Scores to enter each of the scores; W 3. use Slow/Forecast Spreads to obtain forecasts for the next round of playoff games; 4. use File/Save As to save MAIN-DTA.NFL (press the "Yes" button when Forecaster asks if it should replace the current file); S 5. use File/Save As to save an archive file (name it something like PLAYOFF1.96); ) 6. use File/Print to print the reports; ' 7. and use View to view the rankings. INTERPRETING FORECASTS The correlations between Forecaster's ranking system and the teams' offenses, defenses (determined by points) and win-loss-tie percentages are very strong. The coefficient of correlation between the teams' win-loss-tie percentage (column A) and the average of Forecaster's Total ranking (column B) is +0.973. The coefficient of correlation between the teams' win-loss-tie percentage (column A) and the average number of points scored by the teams per game (column C) is +0.845. The coefficient of correlation between the teams' win-loss-tie percentage (column A) and the average number of points scored against the teams per game (column D) is -0.907. 7 Correlations based on 12 Seasons (1984-85 to 1995-96) u Column A Column B Column C Column D Win Average Average Average Loss Total Points+ Points- Team Tie % Ranking Per Game Per Game ------------------------------------------------------------ San Francisco .757 1 131.7 1 26.9 1 16.2 1 Chicago .628 2 109.8 2 20.9 10 17.4 2 Miami .602 3 108.0 3 23.8 2 20.9 19 Denver .594 4 107.3 4 21.9 4 19.5 10 NY Giants .592 5 107.1 5 20.1 16 17.9 3 Washington .560 6 107.0 6 22.2 3 19.9 13 Raiders .555 7 100.8 15 20.0 18 19.5 12 Kansas City .550 8 106.0 7 20.3 13 19.0 5 Dallas .545 9 104.2 10 20.3 6 19.5 11 New Orleans .539 10 104.7 9 20.6 11 19.4 7 Philadelphia .539 11 104.0 11 20.1 17 19.2 6 Pittsburgh .539 12 103.2 12 20.3 14 19.4 8 Buffalo .534 13 101.0 14 21.1 7 20.1 15 Minnesota .524 14 105.5 8 21.9 5 20.0 14 Cleveland .490 15 101.3 13 19.3 22 18.8 4 Seattle .487 16 99.7 17 19.6 20 19.4 9 Houston .482 17 100.3 16 21.0 9 21.1 21 Rams .461 18 93.6 22 20.2 15 22.0 25 San Diego .461 19 99.4 19 20.4 12 20.8 18 Green Bay .458 20 99.4 18 19.8 19 20.4 17 Carolina .438 21 91.1 25 18.1 26 20.3 16 Detroit .437 22 93.7 21 19.6 21 21.8 24 New England .435 23 92.1 23 18.2 25 21.0 20 NY Jets .427 24 92.0 24 19.1 23 21.2 22 Cincinnati .414 25 94.8 20 21.1 8 23.1 27 Indianapolis .398 26 89.1 26 16.8 29 21.5 23 Cardinals .364 27 84.5 28 17.9 27 22.4 26 Atlanta .364 28 84.9 27 18.9 24 23.8 28 Tampa Bay .293 29 77.6 30 16.7 30 24.0 29 Jacksonville .250 30 77.9 29 17.2 28 25.3 30 Over the past 12 seasons, Forecaster has correctly predicted winners 62.5% of the time and spreads 58.7% of the time. For the last five years Forecaster has correctly predicted winners 63.2% of the time and spreads 59.7% of the time. And for the 1991-92 season Forecaster hit 70.2% for winners and 67.7% for spreads. Although these do not equal the percentages of some sports handicappers, it should be noted that Forecaster predicted winners and spreads for 90% of the games (only 278 of 2,690 games were too close to call), not just Monday night games or "5-star specials." Year-By-Year Accuracy for 12 Seasons (1984-85 to 1995-96) Games Wins Spreads Games Predicted Correctly Correctly Season Predicted Even Predicted Predicted ------------------------------------------------------- 1984-85 206 18 69% 65% 1985-86 204 20 64% 61% 1986-87 193 31 64% 58% 1987-88 198 12 58% 54% 1988-89 199 25 58% 52% 1989-90 205 19 59% 57% 1990-91 205 19 63% 58% 1991-92 198 26 70% 68% 1992-93 198 26 63% 61% 1993-94 194 30 63% 59% 1994-95 201 23 60% 55% 1995-96 211 29 60% 56% ------------------------------------------------------- Averages 90% 10% 63% 59% As the season progresses, Forecaster tends to become more accurate in its predictions; changes in coaches and players, offensive and defensive systems, and even locations can affect the strengths of teams which are not reflected in the start-of-season rankings (which are carried over from the end of the previous season). In general, the larger the spread Forecaster predicts, the more likely it is to be correct. The same is true for human forecasters. If Tampa Bay plays San Francisco, we (and Forecaster) will probably predict that San Francisco will win by 2 or 3 touchdowns. Our (and Forecaster's) prediction is more likely to be correct than when we predict that one of two closely-ranked teams will win by a field goal. > Forecaster Accuracy for 12 Seasons (1984-85 to 1995-96) If Forecaster it correctly it correctly predicted a predicted predicted spread of the winner the spread ----------------------------------------------- 1.0 to 1.9 56% 55% 2.0 to 4.9 64% 61% 5.0 to 5.9 69% 56% 6.0 to 8.9 76% 58% 9.0 and above 87% 60% all spreads/games 63% 59% There are, of course, seasonal fluctuations. For example, for the 1986-87 and 1990-91seasons Forecaster predicted winners in the 6 to 8.9 point range with 92% accuracy but with only 50% accuracy for the 1988-89 season. The 87-88 strike season brings down the overall accuracy about .6%. < --- OTHER INFORMATION THAT MAY HELP YOU PICK WINNERS --- The following information covers the 12 seasons from 1984-85 to 1995-96. ? Offenses (points by): Defenses (points against): total avg pts total avg pts pts per game pts per game San Francisco 5142 26.9 San Francisco 3100 16.2 Miami 4538 23.8 Chicago 3314 17.4 Washington 4243 22.2 NY Giants 3413 17.9 Denver 4184 21.9 Cleveland 3584 18.8 Minnesota 4184 21.9 Kansas City 3625 19.0 Dallas 4043 21.2 Philadelphia 3664 19.2 Cincinnati 4033 21.1 Pittsburgh 3698 19.4 Buffalo 4031 21.1 New Orleans 3702 19.4 Houston 4017 21.0 Seattle 3710 19.4 Chicago 3991 20.9 Raiders 3718 19.5 New Orleans 3929 20.6 Denver 3724 19.5 San Diego 3894 20.4 Dallas 3729 19.5 Kansas City 3878 20.3 Washington 3797 19.9 Pittsburgh 3873 20.3 Minnesota 3822 20.0 Rams 3853 20.2 Buffalo 3839 20.1 NY Giants 3835 20.1 Green Bay 3892 20.4 Philadelphia 3832 20.1 San Diego 3966 20.8 Raiders 3827 20.0 Miami 3999 20.9 Green Bay 3784 19.8 New England 4006 21.0 Detroit 3744 19.6 Houston 4034 21.1 Seattle 3736 19.6 NY Jets 4043 21.2 Cleveland 3682 19.3 Indianapolis 4104 21.5 NY Jets 3644 19.1 Detroit 4171 21.8 Atlanta 3602 18.9 Rams 4193 22.0 New England 3483 18.2 Cardinals 4283 22.4 Cardinals 3426 17.9 Cincinnati 4404 23.1 Indianapolis 3207 16.8 Atlanta 4538 23.8 Tampa Bay 3191 16.7 Tampa Bay 4589 24.0 Carolina 289 18.1 Carolina 325 20.3 Jacksonville 275 17.2 Jacksonville 404 25.3 Only 6 tie games: Philadelphia vs Detroit week 10 84-85 23 points San Francisco vs Atlanta week 7 86-87 10 points Philadelphia vs Arizona week 14 86-87 10 points Denver vs Green Bay week 2 87-88 17 points Kansas City vs NY Jets week 5 88-89 17 points Kansas City vs Cleveland week 11 89-90 10 points 24 games in which one team scored 50 or more points. The top 10: NY Jets 62 Tampa Bay 28 week 11 85-86 Cincinnati 61 Houston 7 week 15 89-90 Houston 58 Cleveland 14 week 14 90-91 Cincinnati 56 Tampa Bay 23 week 8 89-90 Washington 56 Atlanta 17 week 11 91-93 San Francisco 56 Atlanta 17 week 7 92-93 NY Giants 55 Green Bay 24 week 16 86-87 Indianapolis 55 Denver 23 week 9 88-89 San Francisco 55 Detroit 17 week 16 93-94 San Diego 54 Pittsburgh 44 week 14 85-86 35 games in which the combined score was 75 points or greater. The top 11: 98 San Diego 54 Pittsburgh 44 week 14 85-86 96 NY Jets 51 Miami 45 week 3 86-87 90 NY Jets 62 Tampa Bay 28 week 11 85-86 88 Buffalo 47 Houston 41 week 3 89-90 86 Buffalo 52 Pittsburgh 34 week 2 91-92 85 San Diego 44 Cincinnati 41 week 3 85-86 84 Seattle 49 San Diego 35 week 2 85-86 84 Green Bay 44 Detroit 40 week 13 86-87 83 Kansas City 42 San Diego 41 week 7 86-87 82 Washington 44 Minnesota 38 week 9 86-87 82 Minnesota 44 Dallas 38 week 12 87-88 82 Detroit 44 Minnesota 38 week 13 95-96 21 games in which the spread was 40 or more points. The top 9: 54 Cincinnati 61 Houston 7 week 15 89-90 51 Cleveland 51 Pittsburgh 0 week 1 89-90 48 San Francisco 48 St. Louis 0 week 16 87-88 45 Seattle 45 Kansas City 0 week 10 84-85 45 Washington 45 Detroit 0 week 1 91-92 44 San Francisco 51 Minnesota 7 week 15 84-85 44 Chicago 44 Dallas 0 week 11 85-86 44 Houston 58 Cleveland 14 week 14 90-91 44 Detroit 44 Jacksonville 0 week 16 95-96 10 highest Forecaster Total rankings (100 is average): 156.6 Chicago week 12 85-86 151.7 Chicago week 11 85-86 149.2 Chicago week 16 85-86 148.6 Chicago week 15 85-86 147.9 Miami week 10 84-85 147.9 Chicago week 10 85-86 147.8 Washington week 12 91-92 147.6 Chicago week 5 87-88 147.4 Miami week 9 84-85 147.2 Chicago week 14 85-86 10 lowest Forecaster Total Rankings (100 is average): 45.0 New England week 17 90-91 45.5 New England week 16 90-91 47.7 Cleveland week 1 84-85 48.1 New England week 15 90-91 49.0 Kansas City week 7 87-88 49.3 New England week 14 90-91 49.4 Kansas City week 8 87-88 50.1 Minnesota week 1 84-85 51.0 New England week 13 90-91 51.3 Tampa Bay week 1 84-85 10 best offenses (most points by) for 1 year: per year per game 513 Miami 84-85 32.1 Miami 84-85 505 San Francisco 94-95 31.6 San Francisco 94-95 485 Washington 91-92 30.6 San Francisco 87-88 475 San Francisco 84-85 30.3 Washington 91-92 473 San Francisco 93-94 29.7 San Francisco 84-85 467 San Diego 85-86 29.6 San Francisco 93-94 459 San Francisco 87-88 29.2 San Diego 85-86 458 Buffalo 91-92 28.6 Buffalo 91-92 457 San Francisco 95-96 28.6 San Francisco 95-96 456 Chicago 85-86 28.5 hicago 85-86 10 worst offenses (fewest points by) for 1 year: pre year per game 140 Seattle 92-93 8.8 Seattle 92-93 143 Indianapolis 91-92 8.9 Indianapolis 91-92 181 New England 90-91 11.3 New England 90-91 187 Cincinnati 93-94 11.7 Cincinnati 93-94 189 Indianapolis 93-94 11.8 Indianapolis 93-94 196 Arizona 91-92 12.3 Arizona 91-92 199 Tampa Bay 91-92 12.4 Tampa Bay 91-92 200 Buffalo 85-86 12.5 Buffalo 85-86 204 Dallas 89-90 12.8 Dallas 89-90 205 Atlanta 87-88 12.8 New England 92-93 205 New England 92-93 10 best defenses (fewest points against) for 1 year: per year per game 187 Chicago 86-87 11.7 Chicago 86-87 198 Chicago 85-86 12.4 Chicago 85-86 202 New Orleans 92-93 12.6 New Orleans 92-93 204 Cleveland 94-95 12.8 Cleveland 94-95 205 NY Giants 93-94 12.8 NY Giants 93-94 211 New Orleans 91-92 13.2 New Orleans 91-92 211 NY Giants 90-91 13.2 NY Giants 90-91 215 Chicago 88-89 13.4 Chicago 88-89 224 Washington 91-92 14.0 Washington 91-92 225 Pittsburgh 92-93 14.1 Pittsburgh 92-93 10 worst defenses (most points against) for 1 year: per year per game 484 Minnesota 84-85 30.3 Minnesota 84-85 473 Tampa Bay 86-87 29.6 Tampa Bay 86-87 462 Cleveland 90-91 29.1 Atlanta 87-88 454 Buffalo 84-85 28.9 Cleveland 90-91 452 Atlanta 85-86 28.4 Buffalo 84-85 448 Tampa Bay 85-86 28.3 Atlanta 85-86 446 New England 90-91 28.0 Tampa Bay 85-86 437 Atlanta 89-90 27.9 New England 90-91 437 Cincinnati 85-86 27.3 Atlanta 89-90 437 Houston 84-85 27.3 Cincinnati 85-86 27.3 Houston 84-85 The most points scored by a team: NY Jets 62 Tampa Bay 28 week 11 85-86 Cincinnati 61 Houston 7 week 15 89-90 There were 115 shutouts. 8 times Indianapolis 7 times Kansas City, Atlanta, NY Jets 6 times Arizona, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Green Bay, New England 5 times Dallas, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Detroit 4 times Houston, Rams, Denver, Seattle, Raiders 3 times Philadelphia 2 times Buffalo, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Chicago, NY Giants 1 times Miami, Washington, Jacksonville 0 times San Francisco, New Orleans, Carolina 5 largest shutouts were: Cleveland 51 Pittsburgh 0 week 1 89-90 San Francisco 48 St. Louis 0 week 16 87-88 Washington 45 Detroit 0 week 1 91-92 Seattle 45 Kansas City 0 week 10 84-85 Chicago 44 Dallas 0 week 11 85-86 Detroit 44 Jacksonville 0 week 16 95-96 5 smallest shutouts were: NY Jets 3 Washington 0 week 15 93-94 NY Jets 6 New England 0 week 13 92-93 Chicago 6 Atlanta 0 week 5 93-94 Indianapolis 6 New England 0 week 14 92-93 Indianapolis 6 NY Jets 0 week 5 87-88 4 times a team has been shut out 2 weeks in a row: Green Bay 0 Buffalo 28 week 9 88-89 Green Bay 0 Atlanta 20 week 10 88-89 New England 0 Atlanta 34 week 13 92-93 New England 0 Indianapolis 6 week 14 92-93 Seattle 0 Dallas 27 week 6 92-93 Seattle 0 Los Angeles 19 week 7 92-93 Indianapolis 0 San Diego 26 week 9 92-93 Indianapolis 0 Miami 28 week 10 92-93 Forecaster uses only scores to rank teams. Therefore, it cannot take into account the facts that the Cowboys are not so good in dark uniforms, that Washington is very good at home or that a star defensive end is holding out for a better contract -- but you can. Combining your knowledge with Forecaster's objective predictions, you have a much better than average chance of predicting winners. BACKUPS You should save each week's data to a backup archive file (on a floppy disk, for example). This can facilitate reconstructing a file should it "go bad" (see "Reconstructing MAIN-DTA.NFL"). Archive filenames should be easy to decipher. The form used by Forecaster is WEEK-??.yy -- for example, WEEK-03.96 or WEEK-11.96. You could simply save a copy of MAIN-DTA.NFL to a different disk or directory each week, but the file name would give no indication of how many week's data it contained and you would not have backups for all of the weekly archive files. Use File/Save As to save a backup file. Use the various list boxes in the dialog box to set the path to a different disk. Use the file name Forecaster offers as the default or enter the name you have invented. When you press the "OK" button, Forecaster checks whether a file with the same name already exists on the disk. If it does, you are given the opportunity to replace it or cancel. RECONSTRUCTNG MAIN-DTA.NFL The total, offense and defense rankings, points for, points against and other data are saved in the file MAIN-DTA.NFL. Each week this information is read into your computer and after you have entered the latest scores it is used to compute new rankings which are used to forecast spreads. The new rankings and other data are then saved back to MAIN-DTA.NFL. NFL Forecaster cannot function without a valid MAIN-DTA.NFL file. If MAIN-DTA.NFL is deleted or is corrupted, it must be reconstructed. e The weekly archive files contain the rankings for a particular week (as well as the scores for that week and the spreads for the next week). In order to reconstruct MAIN-DTA.NFL, you only need to load the appropriate weekly archive file and save it as MAIN-DTA.NFL. (This is a good reason for making a backup of the weekly archive file on a floppy disk.) For example, let us say that it is the Tuesday morning after the games of the 10th week of the 1996-97 season have been played. When you attempt to use Quick to "Enter week 10 scores & forecast week 11 spreads," you receive an error message that says Forecaster cannot read MAIN-DTA.NFL. After trying several times it becomes clear that MAIN-DTA.NFL is no longer useful, so you need to reconstruct it. The latest weekly archive file on your disk is WEEK-09.96. Use File/Open to load WEEK-09.96. Use File/Save As to save the data as MAIN-DTA.NFL. Press the "Yes" button when asked if the existing MAIN-DTA.NFL should be replaced. That's all there is to reconstructing MAIN- DTA.NFL. Now you can use Quick to "Enter week 10 scores & forecast week 11 spreads." FILE FORMATS SCHEDULE.NFL, MAIN-DTA.NFL, FCAST.CFG, NAMES.CFG and the weekly archive files are ASCII text files. Care must be taken that all data items are included in each file, in the correct order and in the correct format. NFL Forecaster takes care of this for you; you should never have to modify these files. MAIN-DTA.NFL The data file which is loaded and saved each week (MAIN-DTA.NFL) contains a version number (currently 4.0), the characters "MD", and the number of teams in the file. This is followed by information concerning each of the 30 NFL teams: total value, offense value, defense value, win/loss/tie percentage, accumulated points scored by the team and against the team, number of wins, losses and ties, and a sort tag indicating the team's ranking as last sorted. A single character sort key is also saved indicating by which category the teams were last sorted. Finally, the average number points scored by each team per game for the last week is included. Version 4.0 of MAIN-DTA.NFL is not compatible with previous versions. MAIN-DTA.NFL must be zeroed each season. , See also Annual Update Weekly archive files The archive files contain the same information as MAIN-DTA.NFL, except for the characters "AD" indicating the file is an archive data file. In addition, the archive files contain the scores of a given week (except the first week of the season) and the forecasts for the following week (except the last week of the season). These files may be used to find a ranking, score, or forecast of any past week. They can also be used to reconstruct MAIN-DTA.NFL if it should become corrupt. Version 4.0 of the weekly archive files is not compatible with previous versions. Y The contents of these files do not change. There should be one archive file for each week of the season. They are normally titled WEEK-xx.yy (where xx = week and yy = year). WEEK-00.yy is the archive file for the first week of the season (when you obtain forecasts, but do not enter scores). Archive files are saved automatically by Quick. FCAST.CFG This file contains the various Forecaster configuration values, such as reports titles, display colors, etc. There is no need to modify any item in this file; Forecaster handles reading and writing this file and you can change the values it contains via the Options menu. IN FACT, YOU SHOULD NOT EVEN LOAD THIS FILE INTO A WORD PROCESSING OR EDITOR PROGRAM. IT IS NOT AN ASCII FILE AND DOING SO COULD CORRUPT IT! Version 4.0 of FCAST.CFG is compatible with previous versions. SCHEDULE.NFL The file contains a version number (currently 4.0), the number of teams in the file and the number of weeks in the schedule. The following lines contain numbers representing the participants and dates of each game of the season. The last line of SCHEDULE.NFL indicates the NFL season of the file -- for example, ".96-97". A new schedule file must be created each season. Version 4.0 of SCHEDULE.NFL is not compatible with previous versions. = See also Annual Update Playoff Games NAMES.NFL This file contains the team and city names for the old 28-team league and for the current 30-team league. Using any editor or word-processing program that can load and save a plain ASCII text file, you can modify the names in this file. You would want to do this when a team moves from one city to another as the Rams did this year. However, the names MUST remain in the same order, a name CANNOT exceed 13 characters and NO lines may be added or deleted from this file. ERROR MESSAGES Many messages that Forecaster issues are self-explanatory, such as "No reports have been selected for printing." The following is a list of other messages with explanations. Most are related to reading from and writing to disk. There are many causes for these errors (including bad disks and corrupted DOS); therefore, there may other causes for the errors than those listed below. k 1 Not enough memory available to complete operation You may receive this message when attempting to use Quick, view or print the schedule or reports and at other times. You need to free up some memory by quitting any other programs you have running (including TSRs) or removing drivers from memory. ? 2 Could not open options file Forecaster looks for FCAST.CFG in the current directory, then the startup directory and then the directories in your DOS PATH statement. If FCAST.CFG is in the Forecaster directory, then it may be corrupt or there may be something wrong with your disk. c 3 Error reading options file; it may be corrupt Forecaster reads FCAST.CFG when it loads options and when it saves options and the windows layout. If there is an error reading the file, there is something wrong with the file or your disk. Try deleting FCAST.CFG and saving options to create a new configuration file. 1 4 Invalid options file The file Forecaster has found named FCAST.CFG is not a Forecaster configuration file or the file has become corrupt. Try deleting FCAST.CFG and saving options to create a new configuration file. C 5 Could not create options file Something is wrong with your disk. C 6 Unable to open/read data file This error may occur when Forecaster is trying to load MAIN-DTA.NFL or an archive data file or read the old MAIN-DTA.NFL file when you choose Zero Data from the Options/Schedule menu. The file may not exist, it may be empty, it may be corrupted, its read-only attribute may be set or the DOS path or file name may be invalid. G 7 Not an NFL Forecaster data file An attempt was made to load a file and its internal format is not what Forecaster expects. You have probably tried to load the wrong file or a pre-version 4.0d file. See "File Formats". } 9 Unable to open window: not enough memory or invalid window This message may occur with #1. Follow the advice there. u 10 Cannot find MAIN-DTA.NFL 11 Cannot find SCHEDULE.NFL Forecaster cannot find the schedule or main data file. Be sure that they are in the Forecaster directory or in a directory in your DOS PATH statement. A 12 Wrong schedule file version You have attempted to load an older schedule file (pre-1995-96 version 4.0d schedule). ? 13 Error reading SCHEDULE.NFL The schedule file is the correct version, but is incomplete. Copy a good copy of the schedule file to the Forecaster directory. a 14 Error reading SCHEDULE.NFL; file is corrupt One or more values in the schedule file is invalid. Copy a good copy of the schedule file to the Forecaster directory. s 15 Unable to open data file 16 Error writing data file These errors may result if a file is locked, if its name is invalid, if the DOS path is invalid and sometimes if the disk is full or corrupt. e 18 Error writing options file; it may be corrupt This message almost certainly indicates that there is something wrong with your disk. M 24 Error renaming/deleting data file This error may occur when when you choose Options/Seasonal/Zero MAIN-DTA.NFL or Options/Seasonal/Create New Schedule. Both functions require that a temporary file be created and/or that a file be renamed *.OLD and/or deleted. There is probably something wrong with your disk. I 25 Error reading/writing data file This error may occur if you have chosen Options/Seasonal/Zero MAIN-DTA.NFL. Forecaster must read from the input file you have named and write to a new MAIN-DTA.NFL. Either the input file is corrupt or there is something wrong with your disk. ? 26 Error writing SCHEDULE.NFL Something is wrong with your disk. i 27 Unable to initialize printer: memory may be low Insufficient memory is the most likely cause (see error #1), although there may be something wrong with your printer cable or printer. ; 28 Unable to open help file Forecaster is unable to find the file FCAST.HLP or there is insufficient memory (see error #1). 29 Cannot find NAMES.NFL; will use default names 30 Wrong version of NAMES.NFL; will use default names 31 Error reading NAMES.NFL; will use default names Forecaster is unable to find or read NAMES.NFL which contains the team and city names. Forecaster will continue to run using its built-in names list. g 32 MAIN-DTA.NFL and SCHEDULE.NFL are incompatible This message indicates that one of the files is an old 28-team league file (2.0d or earlier) and the other is a current 30-team file. First, load MAIN-DTA.NFL (use File\Open) and see how many teams it contains (use View\Team Rankings); then view SCHEDULE.NFL (use View\Schedule). Replace the incorrect file. c -4 Forecaster requires DOS version 3.0 or later Forecaster will not run if your DOS version is not at least 3.0. MISCELLANEOUS You should remember that data saved on a RAM disk is volatile; it disappears when the electricity is turned off (unless you have a memory board with battery backup). Thus, it is important to transfer data files from the RAM disk to permanent media (floppy or hard disks). + When you are entering scores, if a team scores more than 98 points, just enter 98. This is so far above the average of 21 points per game that the increase in the team's offensive ranking (and the decrease in the opponent's defensive ranking) will be so substantial that the difference between 98 and, say, 103 will be negligible. If a team ever scores more than 98 points (in the last 12 years the highest score was 62 points and the record is 99), we will provide an update to NFL Forecaster at no charge to any registered user who writes or calls. 4 See also Quick Slow Enter Scores NFL AVERAGE POINTS PER GAME There is a value that is important to the proper working of NFL Forecaster: the average number of points scored by a team each game. (This value is not as important in version 4.0d (and later) as it was in earlier versions; fluctuations in this value have much less effect on the rankings and forecasts.) Historically, every NFL team scores 21 points per game on average, although this has been decreasing in recent years. Rankings are based, in part, on the percentage that any given team is better or worse than the offense and defense average (this is an oversimplification, but basically true). That is, a team that scores 30 points per game has a stronger than average offense and a team that holds its opponents to 19 points has a stronger than average defense. However, rules changes can affect this value; a liberalization of the rules governing pass defense could result in fewer passing yards (and points) being gained. Average Number of Points per Game per Team for the Past 12 Seasons All Points/ Avg of All Games Weekly Avgs 84-85 21.21 20.94 85-86 21.53 21.48 86-87 20.52 20.51 87-88 21.60 21.59 88-89 20.26 20.19 89-90 20.61 20.61 90-91 20.12 20.20 91-92 18.97 18.95 92-93 18.73 18.72 93-94 18.70 18.80 94-95 20.26 20.23 95-96 21.49 21.50 12 year avg 20.33 20.31 As you can see from the table above, the average fluctuates, and the 12-year average is down from 21.0 to 20.3 (excluding playoff games). However, only in the 3 seasons 91-92 to 93-94 was there a significant deviation from the 21 point average. The NFL is very sensitive about decreases in scoring (fans complain) and changes the rules in order to keep the scoring at its historical average. NEW USERS -- TRYING OUT FORECASTER Before you begin "playing around" with Forecaster, you must make a back-up copy of the file "main-dta.nfl". Forecaster computes rankings for the teams based upon their game scores. The rankings are stored in "main-dta.nfl" and the rankings change each week as you enter new scores for the teams. Thus, "main-dta.nfl" changes whenever you enter scores and save them to disk (this is done automatically when you use the Quick function). The rankings are used to compute the forecasts. Therefore, the rankings contained in "main-dta.nfl" must be accurate in order to obtain accurate forecasts. H After you have "played around" with Forecaster -- entering scores, printing reports, obtaining forecasts, and so on -- to see how it works, "main-dta.nfl" will contain inaccurate rankings: they will be based on the scores you have entered and will not be the actual rankings of the teams prior to the beginning of the season. So, after you have "played around," you should copy the back-up copy of "main-dta.nfl" to your Forecaster directory. Then you will be ready to begin the season with accurate rankings. Sometimes new users enter scores twice, believing that the first scores "didn't take." After you enter scores, the new rankings are not displayed automatically, although, if you are using the Quick function, it will ask if the view windows should be opened. If you enter scores using the Slow function, you must save the new rankings to disk using File\Save As and open a view window using View\Team Rankings. CANCELLED AND POSTPONED GAMES There may be times when a strike, severe weather or other event interrupts the regular NFL schedule and you are unable to use the Quick function to enter scores and obtain forecasts. For example, in 1992 a hurricane caused the Miami-New England game to be postponed for several weeks. You could not use Quick to enter the scores for the first week because there was no score for the Miami-New England game. And, during the week when the postponed game was played, Quick would not forecast spreads for the Miami-New England game because it was not on the schedule. So, it was necessary to load the data (Open), enter the scores, obtain forecasts and save the data (Save As) yourself. As an example, let's assume that the Rams were scheduled to play the Jets during the 4th week of the season, but the game is postponed until week 9. K WEEKS 1 & 2: use the Quick function to enter scores and obtain forecasts. WEEK 3: use the Quick function to enter week 3 scores and obtain forecasts for week 4. Simply ignore the week 4 forecast for the Rams-Jets game. F WEEK 4: you will have to enter scores and obtain forecasts manually. ( 1. Use File\Open to load main-dta.nfl. p 2. Use Slow\Enter scores to enter the week 4 scores (there will be no score for the postponed Rams-Jets game). > 3. Use Slow\Forecast spreads to obtain forecasts for week 5. 4. Use File\Save As to save the rankings to main-dta.nfl. Press the "Yes" button when asked if the existing main-dta.nfl should be replaced. ^ 5. Use File\Save As to save the rankings, scores and spreads to the archive file week-04.96. 6. Print the reports. M WEEKS 5, 6, 7: use the Quick function to enter scores and obtain forecasts. F WEEK 8: you will have to enter scores and obtain forecasts manually. ( 1. Use File\Open to load main-dta.nfl. 5 2. Use Slow\Enter scores to enter the week 8 scores s 3. Use Slow\Forecast spreads to obtain forecasts for week 9 (obtain a forecast for the postponed Rams-Jets game). 4. Use File\Save As to save the rankings to main-dta.nfl. Press the "Yes" button when asked if the existing main-dta.nfl should be replaced. ^ 5. Use File\Save As to save the rankings, scores and spreads to the archive file week-08.96. 6. Print the reports. F WEEK 9: you will have to enter scores and obtain forecasts manually. ( 1. Use File\Open to load main-dta.nfl. o 2. Use Slow\Enter scores to enter the week 9 scores (there will be a score for the postponed Rams-Jets game). ? 3. Use Slow\Forecast spreads to obtain forecasts for week 10. 4. Use File\Save As to save the rankings to main-dta.nfl. Press the "Yes" button when asked if the existing main-dta.nfl should be replaced. ^ 5. Use File\Save As to save the rankings, scores and spreads to the archive file week-09.96. 6. Print the reports. Z WEEK 10 and following weeks: use the Quick function to enter scores and obtain forecasts If one or more entire weeks are cancelled, you follow the steps outlined above, but you need to skip over the week(s). For example, let's assume that weeks 6, 7, and 8 are cancelled. You would have used the Quick function to enter the scores for week 5 and obtain forecasts for week 6. The week 6 forecasts are meaningless, but main-dta.nfl is up-to-date as of week 5. Just prior to week 9: ( 1. Use File\Open to load main-dta.nfl. 2. Use Slow\Forecast spreads to obtain forecasts for week 9. They will be based on the rankings in main-dta.nfl which are up-to-date. 3. Use File\Save As to save the rankings (which haven't changed) and spreads to the archive file week-08.96 (in case you want to look at the forecasts some time in the future. 4. Print the reports. v Then the next week you would use the Quick function to enter the scores for week 9 and obtain forecasts for week 10. 0 It is important to understand that main-dta.nfl must contain accurate rankings in order for Forecaster to make accurate forecasts. Accurate rankings depend upon main-dta.nfl also containing accurate statistics (the number of points scored by and against each team and each team's win-loss-tie record). CORRECTING MISTAKES The most common mistake when using NFL Forecaster is entering the wrong score for a team and not realizing it until after the rankings and scores have been saved to disk. Since rankings are based on scores and forecasts are based on rankings, entering an incorrect score will result in an inaccurate forecast. The general procedure to correct this mistake is to load the most recent correct weekly archive file and save it as main-dta.nfl and then reenter the scores correctly. 7 For example, let's assume it is Tuesday morning after the 11th week of the season. You use the Quick function to "Enter week 11 scores & forecast week 12 spreads." While entering week 11's scores, you make an error but don't realize it until after main-dta.nfl has been saved to disk. To correct the error: 1. Restart NFL Forecaster. 2. Load week-10.96 (which contains the rankings after week 10's scores were entered), the most recent correct weekly archive file. 3. Use File\Save As to save the rankings to main-dta.nfl. Press the "Yes" button when asked if the existing main-dta.nfl should be replaced. At this point main-dta.nfl is accurate as of week 10. ] 4. Now you can use the Quick function to "Enter week 11 scores & forecast week 12 spreads." U You always have to use the most recent correct weekly archive file. So if you discover in week 15 that you made a mistake while entering week 11's scores, you have to load week-10.96 and save it as main-dta.nfl (as in the preceding paragraph). Then you will have use the Quick function to reenter the scores for weeks 11, 12, 13, and 14. It's easier to make a mistake during the playoffs since Forecaster can't prompt you for the teams' scores or generate the forecasts automatically. If you have saved appropriately-named archive files for each week of the playoffs, you can use the steps above to correct the mistake. If you make a mistake while creating a new schedule and don't discover it until after the schedule has been saved to disk (enter a wrong team or date, omit a game, enter the wrong number of games), there is no way to correct the error, except to create the schedule again or purchase an annual update disk. Since you have to create a new schedule only once each year, take your time and verify that every game and week are correct when Forecaster asks you for confirmation. Q If you have corrupted or deleted main-dta.nfl, see Reconstructing MAIN-DTA.NFL. G See also Backups New Users Trying Forecaster NFL FORECASTER COMMAND REFERENCE Below is an description of each menu command. If you press the F1 key when a menu item is highlighted, the on-line help will display the appropriate descriptions below. A menu item that has a right arrow character on its right will cause a submenu to be displayed when that item is chosen. For example, under Options, "View" has a submenu that contains entries for tiling windows, shadows, etc. A menu item that is followed by an ellipse (...) will cause a dialog box to be displayed when that menu item is chosen. For example, File/Open... invokes the File Open dialog box. A menu item that has a shortcut key description can be selected directly without having to go to the menu. For example, the entry for Open under the File menu looks like this "Open Ctrl+O". This means that you can press the Control key and "O" key simultaneously to invoke the File Open dialog box at any time without having to use the menu. Another example: the entry for Zoom under the Window menu looks like this "Zoom F5". Thus, you can press the F5 key anytime a view window is open to zoom and unzoom it. Some groups of menu items are like radio buttons; only one can be selected at a time. The selected item in such a group has a dot to its left. For example, only one sort menu item can be chosen at one time and that selection will have a dot on its left side. Some menu items will have a check mark on their left side to indicate that that menu item is selected. For example, if you select Options/General/Highlight rows, there will be a check mark on its left side to indicate that you want row highlighting. The text of some menu items will change each time you select that menu item. For example, "Turn Sound OFF" will change to "Turn Sound ON" if you choose it and change back to "Turn Sound OFF" if you choose it again. The menu item tells you what will happen if you choose it. 1. FILE Generally, Forecaster Quick handles loading and saving data files for you. Sometimes, however, you may want or need to load and save a file. You need to load MAIN-DTA.NFL, enter the scores and save MAIN-DTA.NFL yourself (1) for the playoff games and (2) when there is a disruption of the NFL schedule as happened in 1992 when a hurricane caused the Miami-New England game to be postponed for several weeks. (3) There may be times when you want to load archive weekly files for information purposes -- to view or print the ranking of a particular team at a particular time or look back at some scores or spreads. 1.1 File_Open CTRL+O Choosing File/Open causes a File Open dialog box to appear. You can enter the name of a file or choose it from the list box. The file name input line maintains a history list of file names. Click the arrow with the mouse or press the down arrow key to see a list of previously chosen files. Open a file Enter a Name file name here > WEEK-18.92 Open Files Or pick a file from MAIN-DTA.NFL Cancel the list WEEK-00.93 box > WEEK-01.93 WEEK-02.93 Drive WEEK-03.93 Lower 1990\ subdirectory > 1991\ Help 1992\ Parent > ..\ subdirectory Current path >C:\FCAST\*.* Current file >WEEK-18.92 1760 10/27/1992 9:00am When the cursor is in the file name input line, you can press the down arrow key (or click on the down arrow with the mouse) and select from a list of previous file names. To select a file from a different disk drive, press the "Drive" button. When you press the "OK" button, Forecaster will examine the file to determine that it is a valid Forecaster file before loading it. Once the file is loaded you can View or Print the rankings or use Slow to Enter Scores or Forecast Spreads. If you have loaded the file just to View or Print rankings, you can load another file or quit Forecaster. If you have loaded a file and entered scores, you probably will use File/Save As to save the data; entering scores causes the rankings to change and you probably want to save these changes. If you attempt to quit Forecaster after entering scores, it will remind you that you have not saved the new rankings to disk and ask if you want to save the data first. 1.2 File_Save As CTRL+A Choosing File/Save As causes a File Save As dialog box to appear. Forecaster will offer the name of the file you have loaded as the default name for saving. You can accept that name, enter another name or choose a name from the list box. When you press the "OK" button or double-click on a file name, Forecaster checks whether there is a file with the same name already on the disk. If so, it will ask you if it should be replaced. To select a file from a different disk drive, press the "Drive" button. See "File/Open" for a sample file dialog box. @ File/Save As can also be used to make backups of each week's rankings. After you have used Quick to enter the scores, obtain forecasts, print the rankings, and save the data, you can use File/Save As to save the data to another disk. If you do not regularly back up your entire hard disk, we recommend that you make a weekly back up of the Forecaster data files. Then, if an electronic glitch should cause MAIN-DTA.NFL to become corrupt in the 14th week of the NFL season, you will not have to reenter all of the season's scores in order to bring MAIN-DTA.NFL up to date. File/Save As CANNOT be used to make copies of files. When you use Save As to save a file (or when Quick saves an archive file), Forecaster checks to see if scores were entered and/or spreads forecast. If so it includes them in the archive file. If you simply load an archive file from one directory and save it under a different name (maybe in a different directory), the file will contain the rankings, but not the scores or forecasts (since no scores were entered nor spreads forecast). If you want to make backup copies of files, you should make them immediately after entering scores as described in the preceding paragraph or use DOS to copy the file. File/Save As is meant to be used after using Quick to save a back-up copy of the data and after using Slow/Enter Scores and Slow/Forecast Spreads for the playoffs non-scheduled games. 1.3 File_Print You can print five reports which are basically the same as what you see in the five View windows. You can also print the NFL schedule. When you choose File/Print, a reports dialog box pops up with a check box for Spreads, Team Rankings, Division Rankings, Category Rankings, Archive Data and Schedule. When you first start Forecaster, only the Schedule check box is enabled. After you load a data file, the Spreads, Team Rankings, Division Rankings and Category Rankings check boxes will be enabled. The Archive Data check box will be disabled unless you have loaded an archive file. Check the reports you want to have printed and press the "OK" button. When you save options (Options/Save options), a list of the currently checked reports is saved. (The state of the Archive scores/spreads check box is not saved.) Thus, if you would like to print a Team Rankings and Spreads report each week, check these two reports and print the reports. Then choose Options/Save options. Now the print reports dialog box will pop up with Team Rankings and Spreads already checked and you can just press the "OK" button. Forecaster reports require no fancy formatting and can be printed on even the oldest, simplest printers (including typewriter-type printers). You can press the "Printer Setup" button to change printers or printer ports. At the top right of each report (except Archive Data and Schedule) is printed the season and week (if you are using Quick). You can add a title to each report and initials to the spreads report, highlight rows, and use team city names. While the reports are printing, a "Cancel Printing" dialog box is displayed. If you press the "Cancel" button, Forecaster cancels printing at the next line of the report. However, if you are using a fast printer or computer, using a print spooler or if your printer has its own buffer, printing may not immediately cancel, because at the time when you press the cancel button, large chunks of the report (or even entire reports) may have already been sent to the printer or buffer. & Forecaster prints one report after another. If your printer requires that you insert pages manually, do the following. Choose only 1 report to print in the Print Reports dialog box and print it. Insert a new page. Select another report in the Print Reports dialog and print it. And so on. Forecaster assumes that the page is 8.5" x 11" and that the printer will print at 10 characters per inch in a non- proportional (fixed) font. The left margin is sufficient for punching holes so the reports can be put in a binder. If you want fancier reports with different and/or proportional fonts and typefaces, you should obtain NFL Forecaster for Windows which takes advantage of Windows superior printing facilities. 1.3.1 File_Print_Spreads Report The Spreads report shows the same information as seen in the View Spreads window as well as additional items. Boxes before each team name are provided so that you can check your choices. Spaces are provided after the team names for noting the scores. The right side contains three columns with a cell for each game -- two for checking off whether Forecaster correctly predicted the winner and the spread (Forecaster will blank out any game cell which is predicted as even) and whether you correctly picked the winner (you may put your initials at the top of this column via Options/Print/Spreads initials). At the bottom right side, cells are provided for the total number of predictions, of correct choices and of correct percentages for each week for each column and to keep running totals for the season. (Forecaster will automatically calculate the total number of weekly predictions for you.) It is interesting as the season progresses to see how well Forecaster does at predicting winners and spreads and how well you do. The spread report contains the forecasts calculated up to the time of printing whether this is two or sixteen. If no spreads have been forecast, Forecaster will display an error message and return you to the main menu. 7 Below is a sample spreads report with an explanation: 94-95 v3.0d NFL FORECASTER: SPREADS 1994-95: Week 7 Team 1 Score Team 2 Score Spread W S BOB ] St. Louis 24 [ ] Atlanta 30 1.0 ] Cleveland 28 [ ] Cincinnati 17 6.0 ] Houston 28 [ ] New England 14 2.0 ] Kansas City 17 [ ] San Diego 14 6.0 [ ] New Orleans 14 [ ] Pittsburgh 37 2.0 ] NY Giants 21 [ ] Philadelphia 10 5.5 ] San Francisco 17 [ ] Dallas 26 EVEN ] Seattle 10 [ ] Detroit 30 1.0 [ ] Arizona 36 [ ] Washington 6 EVEN [ ] Denver 20 [ ] Los Angeles 23 1.9 NOTES: # Week correct # Week predictions % Week correct # Season correct # Season predictions % Season correct The checkmarks to the left of the team names indicate which teams Bob chose. The columns labelled "Score" are the points scored by each team (filled in by Bob). The column labelled "Spread" is the point-spread predicted by Forecaster. Forecaster always puts the team it choses to win on the left. So, Forecaster picked New Orleans to beat Pittsburgh by 2 points, but Bob felt Pittsburgh would win and it did. There were 10 games scheduled for this week and Forecaster made predictions for 8 of them (2 are predicted as EVEN). Thus, the boxes labelled "# Week predctions" contain 8 for Forecaster and 10 for Bob. Forecaster predicted 4 wins and 3 spreads correctly and Bob predicted 6 correctly and these numbers are entered in the boxes labeled "# Week correct." Forecaster predicted 4 of 8 (50%) wins and 3 of 8 (38%) spreads correctly and Bob correctly predicted 6 of 10 (60%) and these precentages are entered in the boxes labelled "% Week correct." Up to this point in the season, Forecaster had made 62 predictions with 34 wins and 29 spreads correct. Bob had correctly chosen 40 of 70 games. These totals are added to this week's totals. So 38 (34+4), 32 (29+3) and 46 (40+6) are entered in the boxes labelled "# Season Correct" and 70 (62+8), 70 (62+8), and 80 (7+10) are entered in the boxes labelled "# Season predictions." At this point in the season, Forecaster had predicted winners correctly 54% of the time (38/70) and spreads 46% of the time (32/70) and Bob had made correct choices 58% of the time (46/80). The values in the "# Season correct" and "# Season predictions" boxes will be added to next week's totals next week. See also View Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule 1.3.2 File_Print_Team Rankings Report The Team Rankings report is very similar to the View Rankings window. The field upon which the rankings were sorted before printing is indicated by a dot to the left of the field name. The average number points scored by each team is printed at the bottom of the report. At the end of the season you can use this number from each week's Team Rankings report to calculate the average number of points scored by each team in each game for the season. (See "NFL Average Points Game" about the importance of this number.) > See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule 1.3.3 File_Print_Category Rankings Report This report provides the same information as the View Category Rankings window. The team names are shortened in order to fit all of the columns on the page. > See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule 1.3.4 File_Print_Division Rankings Report This report provides the same information as the View Division Rankings window. > See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule 1.3.5 File_Print_Archive Data In order to print archive scores or spreads, you must load an archive file first. This function prints the scores of the week of the archive file (except the first week, WEEK-00.yy) and the spreads for the following week (except the last week, WEEK- 17.yy). They are printed on a single page with the name of the archive file as titles. They never have highlighted rows. The Archive Data check box is always unchecked when you invoke the print dialog box; you must explicitly check it each time. If you print the spreads report each week and fill in the scores, there is no need to print archive scores or spreads. However, if you want a separate, printed copy of the scores each week, do the following. Use Quick to enter scores, obtain forecasts, save data, and print the reports. Then choose File/Open and load the archive file for the current week (it was just saved by Quick). Then choose File/Print/Archive Data. > See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule 1.3.6 File_Print_Schedule The current schedule (SCHEDULE.NFL) is printed three weeks to a page (six pages). Options/Print/Title, and Options/General/ Highlight Rows are ignored when the schedule is being printed. > See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule 1.4 File_DOS Shell This menu item enables you to exit to the DOS command line, from which you can execute DOS commands or run another program (assuming there is enough memory available). To return to Forecaster, at the DOS prompt type "exit" and press the Enter key. 1.5 File_Exit ALT+X See "Quitting Forecaster". 2. QUICK Prompted weekly update CTRL+Q Rather than loading a data file (File/Open), individually entering scores for each team (Slow/Enter Scores), choosing teams for spread forecasts (Slow/Forecast Spreads), and saving the data back to disk (File/Save As), you can use the Quick function which does this semiautomatically. You must use the Slow functions to enter scores and predict spreads for the playoff games. $ When you choose Quick from the menu, Forecaster displays a dialog box; from the list, pick which weeks you want to enter scores/forecast spreads for. Forecaster reads the disk files MAIN-DTA.NFL (which contains the current rankings) and SCHEDULE.NFL (which contains the current schedule). Quick then opens a dialog box for entering scores. A score of twenty-one will be highlighted in the list box where you enter the scores. Acceptable scores range from 0 to 98 (see "Miscellaneous"). Enter the correct scores and press the "Enter" button. Forecaster will prompt you to confirm that the scores are correct and if you answer yes it will display them in the lower part of the screen. Since Forecaster has read the schedule, it will know when all of the scores have been entered and immediately update the rankings based upon the new scores. You can press the "Cancel" button at any time to throw away any scores entered so far. If you make a mistake entering scores, and do not catch the mistake when Forecaster prompts you to confirm the scores, press the "Cancel" button. Do NOT save the data. Choose Quick from the menu and start over. After Forecaster updates the rankings, it will ask if it should save the new rankings to disk. You should answer yes, unless you have some special reason for not saving the rankings. Forecaster will then save MAIN-DTA.NFL and a weekly archive file. Forecaster will calculate the spreads for the next week and ask if you would like to forecast some non-scheduled games. You can forecast a maximum of 17 spreads each week (2 extra for a normal 15-game week). Some users like to calculate the spreads for their favorite team against other teams (archrivals, strongest, division leader) each week. If you answer yes, a dialog box similar to the Slow/Forecast spreads dialog box will open. When you have gotten the spreads for as many non-scheduled games as you want/can (or if you choose not to obtain non-scheduled spreads), Forecaster will ask whether it should print the reports. If you answer yes, the print reports dialog box will open. Check the reports you want (Spreads, Team Rankings, Category Rankings, Category Rankings) and press the "OK" button to print them. Finally, Forecaster will ask if it should open the view windows. If you answer "yes," it will call View/Restore Layout, opening the view windows in the sizes and positions that you last saved via Views/Save Layout. The week before the first game of the NFL season use Quick to "Forecast week 1 spreads." (The archive file for this week is WEEK-00.yy.) After the first week's games have been played, but before the second week's games are played, use Quick to "Enter week 1 scores & forecast week 2 spreads." Each week until after the last week use Quick to "Enter week x scores & forecast x+1 spreads." After the last game of the season, you need to "Enter week x scores" (since there is no x+1th game to predict spreads for). For the playoff games Super Bowl, you must use Slow/Enter Scores and Slow/Forecast Spreads because Quick cannot use the schedule file to get scores and forecast spreads. See "Options/Seasonal" for information about zeroing MAIN-DTA.NFL before the start of each season and about creating a new schedule file. See "Annual Update Disk" for information about purchasing an annual update disk (with the new NFL schedule, a zeroed MAIN-DTA.NFL file and the latest version of NFL Forecaster). 3. VIEW The View function enables you to open a view window for team, division and category rankings, and spreads. The average points game may be displayed in a modal dialog box. Scores and spreads from an archive file can also be viewed. The View function also enables you to display the NFL schedule. The View menu item is enabled whenever you (or Quick) load a file. = Use the mouse and scroll bars (or keyboard direction keys) to scroll the window horizontally and vertically. The Home key resets the View window to the upper left corner. The End key resets the View window to the lower left corner. The Page Up and Page Down keys (or clicking on the scroll bar above or below the g Title thumb buttom scroll-bar arrows scroll bars thumb button thumb button) move the contents of the View window up or down one window; for example, if 8 lines are being displayed in a View window and you press the Page Down key, the next 8 lines will be displayed. The Up and Down arrow keys (or clicking on the vertical scroll-bar arrows) scroll the window vertically 1 line. The Right and Left arrow keys (or clicking on the horizontal scroll-bar arrows) scroll the window horizontally one character. More than one view window may be open at the same time. You can change the size and position of a window (except the average points dialog box) and switch from one view window to another using the mouse or keyboard: see "Window". 3.1 View_Spreads CTRL+S The forecasts are listed down the screen with the winning team, the losing team and the point spread listed left to right. If a game is declared to be EVEN (too close to call), the order of the team names is irrelevant; the team on the left has NO advantage over the team on the right. Forecaster does not predict spreads greater than 28 points. Only 17 spread forecasts can be obtained at one session; see also Forecast Spreads. Since the spreads are based on the rankings Forecaster will forecast spreads of partial points -- for example, 6.5 or 3.2. Of course, no team can score partial points, but Forecaster gives you precise spreads rather than rounding them to 1, 2, 3, 6, or 7 points. This is especially useful when two teams are about equally strong. It would be misleading to forecast that a game between Dallas and San Francisco is even or that one team will win by a field goal when in fact one is only 1.2 points stronger than the other. See also Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule View Calendar Restore Views Layout Save Views Layout 3.2 View_Team Rankings CTRL+T Across the screen are listed: the team's rank (1-30); the team's name; the total ranking; the offense ranking; the defense ranking; the number of points the team has scored (Pts+); the number of points scored against the team (Pts-); the average number of points the team has scored each game (Avg+); the average number of points scored against the team each game (Avg-); the team's win-loss-tie percentage (0.000-1.000); and the number of games won, lost and tied. The team's name is also displayed at the right side to make it easier to read the rankings when the window is scrolled to the left. u The total, offense and defense rankings range from 0 to 200 with 100 being an average total ranking, 101 being an average offense ranking and 99 being an average defense ranking. Roughly, average means that a team consistently scores twenty-one points per game (or whatever the average points per game is; see "NFLAPPG") and holds the opposition to twenty-one points per game. The higher the ranking, the stronger the team is. An average team will display about 21 in the Avg+ and Avg- categories. A strong offensive team will show Avg+ values greater than 21 and a strong defensive team will show Avg- values less than 21. A See "Sorting" for information about sorting View Team Rankings. See also View Spreads Print Spreads Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule View Calendar Restore Views Layout Save Views Layout 3.3 View_Division Rankings CTRL+D Rather than being displayed in sorted order (by some category) from 1 to 30, the View Division window displays the teams sorted within their division and conference. They are sorted automatically by win/loss percentage; you cannot sort them by other categories. The same information is displayed across the screen as with the View Team window, except that the rank listed at the left of the screen is the rank of the team according to the last sort category used; a dot is always displayed to the left of the "%" category header and another dot is displayed to the left of the header of the category by which the rankings were last sorted. If you are displaying both the Team Rankings and Division Rankings and sort Rankings, the rankings on the left side of the Division Rankings will change to reflect the new sort and the dot on the category header will move. See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule View Calendar Restore Views Layout Save Views Layout 3.4 View_Category Rankings CTRL+C This function automatically sorts each of the eight categories (total, offense and defense rankings, points for, points against, average points per game for, average points per game against, and win/loss percentage) and lists the teams under the category headings. There is a trade off between Category and Team Rankings displays. Category Rankings is the quickest way to get an overall picture of all of the rankings. You can sort by any of the eight categories with Team Rankings, but you can see the rankings displayed only by one sorted category at a time. Category Rankings shows you all eight sorted categories at one time. However, only the names are displayed and not the actual rankings. See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule View Calendar Restore Views Layout Save Views Layout 3.5 View_Restore Layout CTRL+R 3.6 View_Save Layout The views layout includes the position and size of each view window (Spreads, Team, Category, Division) that is open. For example, let's say that each week you would like to look at the team and division rankings and the spreads. Open each window and size and position them the way you would like. Then choose View/Save Views Layout. The layout will be saved to FCAST.CFG. Now, any time that you choose View/Restore Views Layout, the three windows will be opened, positioned and sized as you saved them. Of course, the spreads view window will not open unless spreads have been forecast. The last thing the Quick function will ask you is whether you want to open the view windows. If you answer "yes," Quick will call Restore Views Layout. To clear the layout, choose Save Views Layout when no view windows are open; then when you choose Restore Views Layout, the four view windows will be opened (if spreads have been forecast) and cascaded. The views layout is saved from the View menu, not from the Options menu. When you choose Options/Save, the views layout is not saved. This means that you can make changes (for example, turning row highlighting on or off) and save them without having to be sure that all of your view windows are open, positioned and sized correctly. Conversely, you can make changes to the views layout and save it without having to be concerned that all of the other options are set correctly. = The view archive data window is neither saved nor restored. NOTE: If you save the views layout while in 43- or 50-row modes with one or more windows partially or completely below row 25 and then restore the views in 25-row mode, part or all of a window may be invisible because it is located below row 25 (and you may not be able to drag it up with the mouse). If this happens, choose Window/Move on the menu and use the arrow keys to move it up. If you attempt to save the windows layout and receive an error message, you should go to the Options menu and save the options (Options/Save). Then try to save the windows layout again. If you still receive an error message, you should copy the original FCAST.CFG to the Forecaster directory, because the one on your disk must be corrupt. If there is no configuration file on disk, you can still save options; Forecaster will create a new one. But if there is not a valid configuration file on disk, you cannot save views layout. l See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule View Calendar 3.7 View_Average Points When you choose this menu item, a dialog box opens with two pieces of information: the average points per game contained in the loaded file and the average points per game calculated after new scores have been entered (this will be 0 until scores are entered). You might use this if you do not regularly print a Team Rankings report which includes the average points per game each week it is printed. You can also use this option to obtain the average points per game per week for an entire season, by loading each weekly archive file (File/Open) and then View/Average points. See NFL Average Points for more on the importance of this value. See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Schedule Print Schedule View Calendar Restore Views Layout Save Views Layout 3.8 View_Archive Data Archive scores and spreads can be viewed only after you load an archive file. No scores are displayed for WEEK-00.yy and no spreads are displayed for WEEK-17.yy. Assuming you have loaded WEEK-09.96, the scores displayed are those of the games of the 9th week of the season and the spreads are those computed for the following week (10). See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule View Calendar Restore Views Layout Save Views Layout 3.9 View_Schedule When you choose this menu item, a dialog box opens and the current schedule (SCHEDULE.NFL) is displayed in a list box. Use the keyboard or mouse to scroll through it. See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points Print Schedule View Calendar Restore Views Layout Save Views Layout 3.10 View_Calendar When you choose this item, the current month with the current date highlighted is displayed. Use the up and down direction keys to page forward and backward a month at a time. 4 Click here Click here with the mouse to with Calendar page forward and backward a the August 1994 month at a time. mouse Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa to 1 2 3 4 5 6 close 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 the 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 calendar. 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 See also View Spreads Print Spreads View Rankings Print Rankings View Division Rankings Print Division Rankings View Category Rankings Print Category Rankings View Archive Data Print Archive View Average Points View Schedule Print Schedule Restore Views Layout Save Views Layout 4. SORT 4.1 Sort_Total ALT+T 4.2 Sort_Offense ALT+E 4.3 Sort_Defense ALT+D 4.4 Sort_Pts+ ALT++ 4.5 Sort_Pts- ALT+- 4.6 Sort_Percentage ALT+% 4.7 Sort_Avg+ ALT+A 4.8 Sort_Avg- ALT+G Rankings are sorted by the current sort field before being displayed. You can change the sort field via the Sort menu which is enabled only while viewing team rankings. Until you close the Team Rankings window, you can resort the rankings on the field of your choice. All fields are sorted in descending order (most to least), except Pts- (total points scored against a team) and Avg- (average number of points scored against a team) which are sorted in ascending order (the fewer points scored against a team the stronger it is). The current sort field is indicated by a dot to the left of the sort field name on the menu, in the view window and printed report. Click to close Shows rankings are Zoom button (see Windows/Zoom) sorted by Offense Team Rankings: WEEK-18.93 Rank Total Off Def Pts+ Pts- Avg+ Avg- % W L T 1 Miami 119.7 125 145 376 235 23.5 14.3 0.750 12 4 0 2 Dallas 127.5 94 130 288 229 18.0 15.6 0.750 12 4 0 When the data is saved to disk (MAIN-DTA.NFL or weekly archive file), it is saved in the last sorted order. When you load MAIN- DTA.NFL or a weekly archive file and View team rankings, the saved order will be used unless you change the sort order before loading the file. Division Rankings are always sorted within each division by the percentage field, but the rank on the left side of the window or page is the rank according to the last team sort. Thus, if you sort the team rankings by Defense, a team might be displayed as first in its division in Division Rankings, but have a ranking of 10 (Defense). Category Rankings are sorted within each category. Spreads are not sorted. A dot is displayed to the left of the chosen sort menu item. Like radio buttons (in a dialog box), only one sort field can be chosen at a time. When you choose another sort field, the dot will be removed from the old choice and placed before the new choice. 5. OPTIONS The Options menu enables you to set up a number of parameters to make the program more convenient to use and to meet the needs of your computer system. You can change any of the configuration settings while Forecaster is running. The settings are saved in the file FCAST.CFG which is automatically loaded when Forecaster is run. FCAST.CFG must be in the same directory as FCAST.EXE or in your DOS PATH statement (see your DOS manual). If Forecaster cannot find FCAST.CFG, it will use default values, which you may or may not find pleasing. * The options are grouped into several categories: (1) View options affect only the screen display. (2) Print options affect only printing. (3) General options affect both viewing and printing. (4) Seasonal includes activities that you need to perform only once-a-year before the season begins. 5.1 Options_View The four View options -- Tile windows, Toggle video mode, Turn shadows ON/OFF, and Colors -- affect the screen display. 5.1.1 Options_View_Tile Windows When you chose Tile from the Window menu (Window/Tile), all open View windows are resized and repositioned so that no window covers any part of another window. When windows are tiled, they can be placed side-by-side or one above the other. 5.1.1.1 Options_View_Tile Vertical When the View windows are tiled vertically, they are placed side-by-side with no window covering any part of another. 5.1.1.2 Options_View_Tile Horizontal When the View windows are tiled horizontally, they are placed one above the other with no window covering any part of another. 5.1.2 Options_View_Turn shadows ON/OFF When a color monitor is in use, Forecaster's menus, windows and dialog boxes are accompanied by shadows which give them a 3-D look and make them easier to isolate visually on a crowded desktop. If you prefer, you can turn shadowing off. However, this function does not turn off shadowing of buttons in dialog boxes which are used to give the impression that the buttons have been depressed and released. Button shadowing can be turned off via the Options/General/Colors menu item. 5.1.3 Options_View_Toggle video mode This options enables you to switch your monitor to and from a video mode that displays more than 25 rows. More rows means that you can see the entire contents of a View window without having to scroll through it. However, it also means that the characters will be smaller and more difficult to read. If you have an EGA video adaptor, 43 lines can be displayed. If you have a VGA adaptor, 50 lines can be displayed. 5.1.4 Options_Colors Choosing this menu item invokes a dialog box by which you can choose the foreground and background colors of the various components of the Forecaster display. 6 1 Choose a group from 2 Choose an item 3 Choose a the group box. from the item box. foreground color. Colors Group Item Foreground Desktop Frame passive Menus Frame active Dialogs Frame icons 4 Choose a View Wnds/Cal Scroll bar page background Shadow Scroll bar icons color. Help Normal text Background Highlight text See a sample OK Cancel The Colors dialog box consists of two list boxes, a text display area, the standard OK, Cancel, and Help buttons. On color and black-and-white systems, it also contains two color palettes while on monochrome systems, it contains a set of radio buttons instead of the palettes. On the left side of the dialog box is a list box in which you choose the region of the program that you want to customize. The various elements are grouped under headings. For example all of the elements that make up the menu system are grouped as "Menus." When you choose a group from the Group list box, all of the items that make up that group are listed in the Item list box. For example, menus have normal text, selected text, disabled text, and so on. X On color and black-and-white systems, you use the Foreground and Background palettes to choose the colors for the elements in the Items list box. For example, you could choose Menus from the Group list box, then Selected text from the Item list box, and then set the colors of a selected menu item to white (foreground) on blue (background). Colors On monochrome systems, you use the ) Mono low Colors set of radio buttons to ( ) Mono high modify the character attributes ( ) Mono underscore (instead of colors). ( ) Mono inverse On all systems, the display text (above the Help button) shows the current color or attribute settings. Changes do not take effect until you close the Colors dialog box by choosing OK. Because there are so many color items, it can take some time to get everything to look just the way you like. Therefore, after you have completed customizing Forecaster's colors and saved them, you should make a back-up copy of FCAST.CFG (the file that contains the options). If the file becomes corrupt or is accidentally deleted, you can easily and quickly restore all of the options you have customized by using the back-up copy of FCAST.CFG. One of the elements listed in the Items list box when you choose Dialogs in the Group list box is "Clusters." A cluster is a group of controls, such as radio buttons or check boxes. Forecaster has only one cluster: the group of check boxes in the Print Reports dialog box. If you want to remove ALL shadows, first choose the menu item Options/View/Shadows. Then choose Options/View/Colors/Dialog boxes/Button shadow and set the foreground and background colors to the same color used as the dialog box's background color (static text, labels, etc.). 5.2 Options_Print The three Print options -- Setup, Reports title, and Spreads initials -- affect only printing. 5.2.1 Options_Printer setup This menu item opens a dialog box from which you can pick a printer and printer port. The same dialog box opens when you press the "Printer Setup" button when the Print Reports dialog box is displayed. Most printers are connected to the parallel printer port LPT1. If your printer is connected to LPT2 or LPT3, you should press the appropriate radio button. If your printer is connected to a COM (serial) port, you should use the DOS MODE command to configure your printer's baud, parity, etc. and to redirect printer output from the parallel port to the serial port. For example, at the DOS prompt you might type "mode lpt1=com1". See your DOS manual for more information. W Because Forecaster's reports are uncomplicated, there are only three printer choices: 1. Laser printer -- If you have a Hewlett-Packard LaserJet (any model) or if your laser printer is compatible with the Hewlett- Packard LaserJet (most are), then press this radio button. 2. Dot matrix w/ graph characters -- If your printer can print the IBM extended character set ( ), press this button. Your printer need not be a dot-matrix printer; it can be any printer that is not a laser printer capable of printing the extended character set. 3. Dot matrix w/o graph characters -- If your printer is not a laser printer and cannot print the IBM extended character set (a set of characters used to draw boxes: ), you should press this radio button. Most printers in this category are older printers such as the Epson MX (without the Dots Perfect upgrade), early daisy-wheel and typewriter-type printers. Forecaster will use printable ASCII characters to draw boxes and lines. 5.2.2 Options_Print_Title of reports You can enter up to 11 characters that will appear at the top left of the Spreads, Team Rankings, Category Rankings, and Division Rankings reports -- your name or the date, for example. 5.2.3 Options_Print_Spreads initials You can enter three characters (usually your initials or first name) that will appear at the top of the third column on the Spreads report. In this column you check off whether you picked the correct winners. 5.3 Options_General The General options affect both printing and viewing: Highlight rows, turn sound ON/OFF, and names. 5.3.1 Options_General_Highlight rows Row highlighting in the Spreads, Team Ranking and Category Ranking view windows takes the form of drawing every fifth row in the color you choose for highlighting menu items via Options/View/Colors (every fourth row for old 28-team rankings). In the Division Rankings view window, each division title is highlighted. Row highlighting on the Team Rankings and Category Rankings reports takes the form of a line drawn beneath every fifth row (every fourth row for old 28-team rankings). The Division Rankings, Archive Data and Spreads reports have their own row highlighting which cannot be turned off. 5.3.2 Options_General_Turn sound ON/OFF If Sound is turned on, warning, error, and informational messages are accompanied by a beep to get your attention. 5.3.3 Options_General_Names Whenever a reference is made to a team, whether on screen or on a printed report, you can have Forecaster use either the team's name or its "city" name -- for example, Broncos or Denver, Rams or St. Louis. 5.3.3.1 Options_General_Names_Use city names The team's geographical name will be used: for example, Miami, New England, Arizona. 5.3.3.2 Options_General_Names_Use team names The teams "mascot" name will be used: for example, Dolphins, Patriots, Cardinals. 5.4 Options_Seasonal Forecaster uses game scores, current rankings and accumulated points for and points against to compute new rankings and to calculate point spreads. Thus, at the beginning of each season MAIN-DTA.NFL must be modified so that points for and against and average points for and average points against are set to zero. For the program to be useful, the number of wins, losses and ties and the win/loss percentage for each team must also be set to zero. Forecaster's Quick function uses SCHEDULE.NFL to prompt you for scores and to calculate point spreads, so a new schedule must be constructed before the new season begins. NFL Forecaster provides functions for zeroing MAIN-DTA.NFL, creating a new schedule, and displaying or printing the schedule. You can also purchase an annual update disk which contains MAIN-DTA.NFL, SCHEDULE.NFL and the latest version of NFL Forecaster. 5.4.1 Options_Seasonal_Zero MAIN-DTA.NFL You need to zero MAIN-DTA.NFL only once a year before the new season begins. If you purchase an annual update disk, you do not have to zero MAIN-DTA.NFL. This function prepares a new MAIN-DTA.NFL file for a new season. It takes the data from one file, modifies it and saves it as MAIN-DTA.NFL. The number of points scored by a team and scored against a team, the average number of points scored by a team and scored against a team, the number of wins, losses and ties, and the win/loss percentage must be set to zero, since at the beginning of a new season no team has scored any points or won any games. You will be asked for the name of the source file you want to use to create the updated MAIN-DTA.NFL. Since Forecaster is used through the playoffs and Super Bowl, the rankings contained in MAIN-DTA.NFL at the end of a season are a bit distorted because only some teams play in the playoffs. Thus, most users choose to use the weekly archive file from the last week of the previous season as the source file. In this case it is best to rename MAIN-DTA.NFL to POSTBOWL.YY (for example, POSTBOWL.96) before using MAIN-DTA.NFL update. Then you will have an archive data file of the rankings after the last week of the season and another of the rankings after the Super Bowl. If you use MAIN- DTA.NFL as the source file, it is renamed to MAIN-DTA.OLD and the new data is saved as MAIN-DTA.NFL. You have two choices when updating MAIN-DTA.NFL for the new season: you can Keep (carry over) the total, offense and defense rankings or you can give each team an equal and Average total, offense and defense ranking. V KEEP sets the points for, points against, win, loss, tie, and win/loss percentage categories to zero. The total, offense and defense rankings are carried over (kept). Usually you will want to KEEP the old rankings because despite the draft and other activities intended to produce parity, the NFL teams do not start each season as equals. AVERAGE sets the points for, points against, win, loss, tie, and win/loss percentage categories to zero. The total, offense and defense rankings of every team are set to an average value (total = 100; offense = 101; defense = 99). Because the rankings are all equal, all of the games for the first week of the season will be declared Even. Most users do not use this function, but you might want to see how the rankings would work out IF the season began with parity among the NFL teams. The default button in the dialog box is "Cancel." You must press the "Keep" or "Average" buttons, not press the "Enter" key. 5.4.2 Options_Seasonal_Create new schedule If you purchase an annual update disk, you do not have to create a new schedule yourself. This function first opens a dialog box with a list box from which you choose the number of weeks in the new season. It seems that the NFL has settled on a season of 17 weeks, but it could be lengthened or shortened so the values in the list box range from 14 to 20. The value Forecaster is requesting is the number of weeks in the REGULAR season (do not include playoff and Super Bowl weeks). The function then opens a dialog box similar to the one used by Slow/Forecast Spreads. You use it to indicate which two teams play in every game of the new season. After you choose two teams, press the "Game OK" button. You will be asked to confirm that the choices are correct. You also will be asked to confirm that the choices are correct after each week's schedule has been entered. You cannot selectively make corrections; that is, you cannot go back and fix game three of week seven or game eleven of week twelve. You must make corrections immediately or a week at a time. If a week has 15 games, Forecaster will know when an entire week's games have been entered. If a week has less than 15 games, press the "Week OK" button. [ If you press the "Cancel" button, Forecaster will ask you to confirm that you want to stop. Although this function makes creating a new SCHEDULE.NFL file quite easy, there is still a substantial amount of work involved. You cannot save a partial schedule and resume work at a later time; thus, the choice to cancel should not be taken lightly. When you create a new schedule, SCHEDULE.NFL is renamed to SCHEDULE.OLD. If SCHEDULE.OLD exists, it is overwritten. To save each year's schedule, rename it before you choose Options/Seasonal/Schedule/Create new schedule (for example, SCHEDULE.94). 5.5 Options_Save options When you choose Options/Save, the current values for all of the options are saved to FCAST.CFG. The options saved and their values when you first run Forecaster are: / tile windows vertically or horizontally (vertically) shadows (yes) video mode (25 lines) colors printer setup (LPT1 and Dot Matrix w/ graph chars) reports title (96-97 v. 4.1d) spreads report initials (YOU) highlighting (yes) sound (yes) team or city names (city); Options are NOT automatically saved when you quit Forecaster; therefore, you can experiment without changing the settings in FCAST.CFG which aren't changed until you select Save from the Options menu. Also contained in FCAST.CFG are Views Layout and the reports that you have checked in the Print/Reports dialog box. i If there is no FCAST.CFG file on your disk when you save the options, Forecaster will create a new one. It can take some time to set all of the options just the way you like. Therefore, after you have completed customizing Forecaster's options and saved them, you should make a back-up copy of FCAST.CFG (the file that contains the options). If the file becomes corrupt or is accidentally deleted, you can easily and quickly restore all of the options you have customized by copying the back-up copy of FCAST.CFG to your Forecaster directory where Forecaster can find it when it runs. 6. SLOW Slow enables you to manually pick the teams to forecast spreads for and to manually enter scores. Generally, you should not have to use Slow. There are ONLY TWO occasions when you have to use Slow. FIRST, you must use Slow/Forecast Spreads and Slow/Enter Scores for playoff games because Quick uses the SCHEDULE.NFL file to prompt you for scores and forecast spreads and the playoff teams are unknown at the beginning of the season when the schedule file is created. _ SECOND, it is necessary to enter scores and forecast spreads via Slow when there is a disruption of the NFL schedule as happened in 92-93 when a hurricane caused the Miami-New England game to be postponed for several weeks. In that case, you could not use Quick to enter the scores for the first week because there was no score for the Miami-New England game. Further, during the week when the postponed game was played, Quick would not forecast spreads for the Miami-New England game because it was not on the schedule. If you have to use Slow because there is a disruption of the NFL schedule, be sure to save the data to disk since the new rankings will be the result of actual games. Save both MAIN- DTA.NFL and a weekly archive file (Quick normally does this for you). See "File/Open" and "File/Save As" for information about loading and saving files. Except in these two cases, you should not use Slow. If you do use it to "play around" and enter scores, be sure not to save data to disk (the rankings will not reflect the scores of actual games). { It is crucial that you obtain forecasts for next week's games only AFTER you have entered last week's scores (and, therefore, have updated the rankings). Otherwise, the forecasts will be based on last week's rankings. This is not a problem if you use Quick, but you must remember to do this in the proper order if you use Slow: Enter the scores and then Forecast the spreads. 6.1 Slow_Manually enter scores CTRL+E In order to use Slow to Enter scores, you must first load file -- either MAIN-DTA.NFL or a weekly archive file -- because new rankings are based upon current rankings (which are contained in a disk file). The Enter Scores dialog box displays the teams by conference and division in six columns. Using the mouse or keyboard, choose the 2 teams that played in last week's games and enter the appropriate scores. You can choose teams and enter scores in any order: pick team, enter score, pick team, enter score; or pick team, pick team, enter score, enter score; or enter score, pick team, enter score, pick team; etc. A score of twenty-one will be highlighted in the input box where you enter the scores. Acceptable scores range from 0 to 98 (see also "Miscellaneous"). When the teams and scores are correct, press the "Enter" button. Forecaster will prompt you to confirm that the teams and scores are correct and if you answer "yes" it will display them in the lower part of the screen. If you answer "no," you can reenter the teams and/or scores. When you have entered all scores for all of the games, press the "Done" button. Forecaster will immediately update the rankings based upon the new scores. t You can press the "Cancel" button at anytime to cancel Slow/Enter Scores and throw away any scores entered so far. Forecaster will not allow you to choose a team to play itself. After you confirm that the teams and scores are correct for each game, Forecaster will remove the team names from the list box. This prevents you from accidentally entering a team twice. When the scores for fourteen games have been entered (the maximum number), Forecaster will automatically close the dialog box. See also the relevant sections for viewing and printing the rankings and spreads. If you make a mistake entering scores, and do not catch the mistake when Forecaster prompts you to confirm the scores, press the "Cancel" button. Do not save the data. Then reload the file and reenter the scores. See also Correcting Mistakes. 6.2 Slow_Manually forecast spreads CTRL+F In order to forecast spreads, you must first load file -- either MAIN-DTA.NFL or a weekly archive file -- because spreads are based upon current rankings (which are contained in a disk file). . The Forecast Spreads dialog box displays the teams by conference and division in six columns. Using the mouse or keyboard, choose the teams that will play in the up-coming games. Then press the "Forecast" button and Forecaster will display the winner of the game and the winning point spread at the lower part of the screen. When you have obtained forecasts for all of the games of the next week, press the "Done" button. You can press the "Cancel" button at anytime to cancel Slow/Forecast Spreads and throw away any spreads you have obtained so far. Forecaster will not allow you to choose a team to play itself; it will, however, allow you to choose the same team more than once. Thus, you can test your favorite team against other teams in hypothetical games. When 17 forecasts have been computed (the maximum number), Forecaster will automatically close the dialog box. See also the relevant sections for Viewing and Printing spreads. 7. WINDOW This menu item enables you to position, size, close and switch View windows. 7.1 Window_Tile When View windows are tiled, they are arranged on the desktop side-by-side or one above the other (see "Options/View/Tile"), so that no window covers any part of another window. Tiled Vertically Tiled Horizontally 7.2 Window_Cascade Cascade causes all open View windows to resize and overlap each other. When View windows are cascaded, they are stacked one on top of the other so that a small portion of each one is visible. 7.3 Window_Close all This will cause all open View windows to close. 7.4 Window_Size/Move CTRL+F5 Use this command to change the size or position of the active window. Use the arrow keys to move the window. If you press Shift while using the arrow keys, you can change the size of the active window. Once you've adjusted its size or position, press Enter. With a mouse you move a window by dragging its title bar. Title Resize a window by dragging the resize corner with the mouse. 7.5 Window_Zoom F5 Choose Zoom to resize the active window to the maximum size. If the window is already zoomed, you can choose this command to restore it to its previous size. g You can also click on the window's zoom icon or double-click anywhere on the window's title bar. Title 7.6 Window_Switch F6 Choose this menu item to cycle forwards through the open View windows making each the active window in turn. You can also click the mouse inside an inactive window to make it active. 7.7 Window_Previous SHIFT+F6 Choose this menu item to cycle backwards through the open View windows making each the active window in turn. You can also click the mouse inside an inactive window to make it active. 7.8 Window_Close ALT+F3 Choose this menu item to close the active View window. You can also click the Close box in the upper left corner of the window. 8 HELP The file FCAST.HLP must be in your Forecaster directory in order to access on-line help. See also "Help" 8.10 About The About dialog box is displayed when Forecaster first runs and when you choose this menu item. It displays the author's name, NFL Forecaster version number (something like 4.1d), the copyright information and Cotton Software's address. 8.11 Help_Print registration form Choosing this item will cause the NFL Forecaster registration form to be printed. Press the Printer Setup button to choose a printer and printer port.